Estimating productivity of Wind Farms for various period of time

Service consist of stimulation Wind Farms operation. During stimulation, production of electricity is treated as stochastic process related to variability of wind speed. Result of the simulation is full probability distribution of produced energy. (Contain full spectrum of probability events: from the most pessimistic to most optimistic) and associated characteristic P(XX). Simulation might be carried out for any time interval (one year or longer period of time as several years), their results are useful in estimating risks of Wind Farms operation related to variability of wind power. Simulation is carried out on local based data: Size of the generated power, and turbine characteristics.

Advantages of implementation technology:

  1. Estimation of real productive performance.
  2. Full characteristic P(XX) for any period of time.
  3. Rational management of business risks.

We have used elements of our technology for the purposes of Polish Wind Energy Association (PSEW) to simulate exemplary Wind Farm operation for substantive assessment of proposed in a draft law of new auction mechanism support for renewable energy producers (link to Report).

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The results of simple simulations of a single turbine running (nominal power 2.5MW) are shown below. The simulations were performed for three different time periods of calculations : blue line – 1 year, red line – 3 year and green line – 6 year. Left graph shows a relation: P(XX) characteristic vs. mean annual productivity (MAP), and right graph presents relation: risk level of MAP lower than vs. percent deviation of MAP from a declared value in P(50).