Estimating productivity of Wind Farms for various period of time

Service consists of simulation of wind farm operation. During simulation, production of electricity is treated as stochastic process related to variability of wind speed. Result of the simulation is full probability distribution of produced energy- from most pessimistic to most optimistic and associated characteristics P(XX). Simulation can be carried out for any time intervals ( one year or several years). These results are useful in estimating risks of wind farms operations related to variability of wind power. Simulation is conducted using local data: size of generated power and turbine characteristics.

Advantages of implementation technology:

  1. Estimation of real productive performance.
  2. Full characteristic P(XX) for any period of time.
  3. Rational management of business risks.

We have used elements of our technology for the purposes of Polish Wind Energy Association (PSEW) to simulate exemplary Wind Farm operation for substantive assessment of proposed in a draft law of new auction mechanism support for renewable energy producers (link to Report).

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The results of simple simulations of a single turbine running (nominal power 2.5MW) are shown below. The simulations were performed for three different time periods of calculations : blue line – 1 year, red line – 3 year and green line – 6 year. Left graph shows a relation: P(XX) characteristic vs. mean annual productivity (MAP), and right graph presents relation: risk level of MAP lower than vs. percent deviation of MAP from a declared value in P(50).