Production forecasts

The service is intended for entities related to the production, management and trading of electricity from wind farms. The result of the service operation is the forecast of the wind farm generation size in the time interval up to 144 hours. Thanks to the service, you can effectively evaluate the production capacity of farms and effectively manage the portfolio of contracts on the Polish Power Exchange and Balancing Market, minimizing the risk related to the uncertainty of the size of the generation derived from the random nature of wind variability. The service is carried out by our company in cooperation with a Danish partner with many years of experience in providing this type of analyses for entities related to wind energy around the world.

The service operates on the basis of a Forecasting System consisting of a meteo subsystem that generates accurate local weather forecasts using three mesoscale numerical models and a generation-based prediction subsystem based on a neural network platform supported by a physical model of the generation process. Such a combination ensures high verifiability of forecasts and reliability of the System. Thanks to the application of the System to forecast the generation of neural network techniques, it is able to effectively take into account the local work conditions specific for a given farm, i.e. meteo conditions, terrain conditions, mutual location of turbines, etc. The average yearly effectiveness of the System described by the NMAPE parameter depending on the terrain is:

  • flat area 7 – 9%

  • offshore 10 – 12%

  • area with complex topography 10 – 14%

  • area with very complex topography 16 – 20%

It is worth noting that the algorithms used in the Forecasting System have found recognition in the eyes of experts of such scientific institutions and associations as: National Risoe Research Laboratory in Denmark or the European Meteorological Society.

Advantages of the Service:

  • effective risk management of wind generation uncertainty associated with the random nature of wind power variability

  • high verifiability of forecasts thanks to the technologies used

  • extensive experience and competences of the team performing the forecasts

Basic characteristics of the Service:

  • generation of production size forecasts based on three mesoscale weather forecast models and a neural network platform

  • forecasts up to 144 hours

  • time step of 15, 30 or 60 minutes

  • up to 8 forecasts updated daily

  • data exchange based on FTP / SFTP protocols or via e-mail

We invite you to use the Service and contact us to learn more about its details.